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"Podem ainda não estar a ver as coisas à superficie, mas por baixo já está tudo a arder" - Y. B. Mangunwijaya, escritor indonésio, 16 de Julho de 1998.

||| Ainda bem que temos os cofres cheios

por josé simões, em 24.06.15


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Porque esta credibilidade foi arduamente conquistada:

«[…] in reality, the real crisis may not be in the east of the eurozone, but right over in the west. Portugal is the ticking time-bomb waiting to explode.

Why? Because the country has run up unsustainable debts, most of the money is owed to foreigners, and with the economy still in deep trouble it may have to default as well.

All the evidence suggests that, once the debt-to-GDP ratio climbs into the 130% bracket and above, it is basically unsustainable.

And then there is Portugal — which is not in Greek-style permanent crisis, and yet does not seem capable of a sustainable recovery.

The recovery does not look very durable. It is mainly is driven by consumer spending and a cyclical uptick in investment. But exports continue to fall, and unemployment is still rising — the latest figures show it up to 13.7% of the workforce.

The Portuguese are close to unique, in both having very high debts, and most of it being owned abroad. Nor does it just end there. Once household and corporate debt is added into the equation, Portugal has more debt in total than any other eurozone country, Greece included (which mainly has government debt to deal with).»

«Forget Greece, Portugal is the eurozone’s next crisis»

[Via e imagem]





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